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Goldman on Probabilistic Inference

Fallis, Don (2002) Goldman on Probabilistic Inference. Philosophical Studies 109(3).

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Abstract

In his latest book, Knowledge in a Social World, Alvin Goldman claims to have established that if a reasoner starts with accurate estimates of the reliability of new evidence and conditionalizes on this evidence, then this reasoner is objectively likely to end up closer to the truth. In this paper, I argue that Goldman’s result is not nearly as philosophically significant as he would have us believe. First, accurately estimating the reliability of evidence—in the sense that Goldman requires—is not quite as easy as it might sound. Second, being objectively likely to end up closer to the truth—in the sense that Goldman establishes—is not quite as valuable as it might sound.

EPrint Type:Journal Article (On-line/Unpaginated)
Keywords:epistemic risk, epistemic value theory, epistemology, probability
Subjects:Philosophy
Social Epistemology
ID Code:1579
Deposited On:20 October 2006
Alternative Locations:http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019644929122
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